Baccarat is notorious for the use of the strategy known as the “Gambler’s Fallacy.” Many players will use scorecards and pencils to keep track of previous baccarat hands played. They will use these results to try and predict the result of the next hand. Their bet will be based on those previous results.
This is a Baccarat strategy that has no mathematical basis. If we flip a coin and it lands five times in a row on heads, what are the odds the next coin flip will be tails? The answer is 50%. Just because the coin landed on heads five times in a row does not change the mathematical odds of whether the coin will land on heads or tails on the next flip. The same holds true of baccarat. It doesn’t matter how many times in a row the banker hand or player hand has won, the odds on the next hand are the same regardless of the previous results.
That leaves us with the question, what is the best strategy to use while playing baccarat? First, we must know what the best bet is. The best bet in baccarat is to bet on the banker hand. If the commission is 5% the house advantage is 1.06%, which is very low. The first step in your strategy is to look for games that offer lower than a 5% commission. The lower the commission the lower the advantage the casino will have. There are games that offer as low as a 3% commission which lowers the overall casino advantage below 1%.
Once you’ve found a game with a low commission on the banker bet, the rest of the strategy is quite simple. You are going to bet on the banker hand EVERY round played. This will give you the statistically best chance of winning.
Make sure you are getting rated while you play. The casino will give you “comps” or bonuses based on your level of play. Combine these comps with your bet on the banker hand on a game that has a 3% commission and you are playing at close to “even odds” with the casino. That means you have taken away the built-in casino advantage and you have an equal chance of winning. Other than advantage gambling where you actually put the odds in your favor (which can’t be done in baccarat), playing at even odds is as good as it gets.